As of June 9, 2025, Colefax Group PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $790.14 to $2484.09 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $1387.54 | +72.4% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $1297.28 | +61.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $790.14 | -1.8% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $890.10 | +10.6% |
| Earnings Power Value | $2484.09 | +208.6% |
Is Colefax Group PLC (CFX.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $805.00, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Colefax Group PLC's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 6.0% | 7.0% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.65 | 1.09 |
| Cost of equity | 7.9% | 12.6% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 4.6% |
| Tax rate | 21.7% | 23.1% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.48 | 0.48 |
| After-tax WACC | 6.4% | 9.6% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $1,297 | $88M | 72.5% |
| 10-Year Growth | $1,388 | $93M | 51.4% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $1,126 | $77M | 68.8% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $1,276 | $87M | 47.6% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $12M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.6% - 6.4% |
| Enterprise Value | $127M - $192M |
| Net Debt | $10M |
| Equity Value | $117M - $183M |
| Outstanding Shares | 0M |
| Fair Value | $1,942 - $3,027 |
| Selected Fair Value | $2484.09 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $49M |
| Enterprise Value | $58M |
| Trailing P/E | 8.41 |
| Forward P/E | 8.28 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 6.15 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 68.09% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 9.90% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.48 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $416.26 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $324.32 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $158.03 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $133.52 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $248.41 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $1280.53 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Colefax Group PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $1280.53, which is approximately 59.1% above the current market price of $805.00.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Colefax Group PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.