As of June 9, 2025, Colefax Group PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $805.00, this represents a potential upside of 72.4%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 61.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 72.4% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.4% - 9.6% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $107 million in 04-2024 to $134 million by 04-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.3%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 04-2024 | 107 | 2% |
| 04-2025 | 104 | -3% |
| 04-2026 | 108 | 4% |
| 04-2027 | 112 | 3% |
| 04-2028 | 114 | 2% |
| 04-2029 | 116 | 2% |
| 04-2030 | 119 | 3% |
| 04-2031 | 123 | 3% |
| 04-2032 | 126 | 2% |
| 04-2033 | 129 | 2% |
| 04-2034 | 134 | 4% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 5% in 04-2024 to 6% by 04-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 04-2024 | 6 | 5% |
| 04-2025 | 6 | 6% |
| 04-2026 | 6 | 6% |
| 04-2027 | 6 | 6% |
| 04-2028 | 6 | 6% |
| 04-2029 | 7 | 6% |
| 04-2030 | 7 | 6% |
| 04-2031 | 7 | 6% |
| 04-2032 | 7 | 6% |
| 04-2033 | 7 | 6% |
| 04-2034 | 8 | 6% |
with a 5-year average of $3 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 04-2025 | 3 |
| 04-2026 | 3 |
| 04-2027 | 3 |
| 04-2028 | 3 |
| 04-2029 | 3 |
| 04-2030 | 3 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 17 |
| Days Inventory | 144 |
| Days Payables | 42 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | 5 | 1 | 2 | (0) | 3 |
| 2026 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 2027 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 2028 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 2029 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | 61.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | 72.4% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 1125.64 | 39.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 1275.86 | 58.5% |
Is Colefax Group PLC (CFX.L) a buy or a sell? Colefax Group PLC is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Colefax Group PLC (CFX.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of 72.4%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $805.00.