As of September 18, 2025, Canfor Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $21.84 per share. With the current market price at $13.37, this represents a potential upside of 63.3%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $21.84 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -267.9% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 63.3% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.5% - 7.8% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $5253 million in 12-2024 to $6591 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.3%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 5253 | 3% |
| 12-2025 | 5315 | 1% |
| 12-2026 | 5421 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 5530 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 5640 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 5753 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 6089 | 6% |
| 12-2031 | 6211 | 2% |
| 12-2032 | 6335 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 6462 | 2% |
| 12-2034 | 6591 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -14% in 12-2024 to 2% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | (736) | -14% |
| 12-2025 | (598) | -11% |
| 12-2026 | (447) | -8% |
| 12-2027 | (299) | -5% |
| 12-2028 | (153) | -3% |
| 12-2029 | (8) | 0% |
| 12-2030 | 21 | 0% |
| 12-2031 | 52 | 1% |
| 12-2032 | 83 | 1% |
| 12-2033 | 115 | 2% |
| 12-2034 | 149 | 2% |
with a 5-year average of $474 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 8% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 515 |
| 12-2026 | 513 |
| 12-2027 | 474 |
| 12-2028 | 443 |
| 12-2029 | 426 |
| 12-2030 | 438 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 20 |
| Days Inventory | 83 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | (97) | (90) | 205 | (11) | (202) |
| 2026 | 0 | (134) | 418 | (34) | (250) |
| 2027 | 155 | (90) | 426 | (17) | (164) |
| 2028 | 316 | (46) | 435 | (20) | (52) |
| 2029 | 489 | (2) | 443 | (21) | 69 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -267.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 21.84 | 63.3% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 11.33 | -15.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 27.23 | 103.7% |
Is Canfor Corp (CFP.TO) a buy or a sell? Canfor Corp is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Canfor Corp (CFP.TO) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 63.3%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $13.37.