As of May 31, 2025, Centamin PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $54.02 to $253.11 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $253.11 | +73.4% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $213.92 | +46.5% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $142.15 | -2.6% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $54.02 | -63.0% |
| Earnings Power Value | $129.97 | -11.0% |
Is Centamin PLC (CEY.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $146.00, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Centamin PLC's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 6.0% | 7.0% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.62 | 1.06 |
| Cost of equity | 7.7% | 12.4% |
| Cost of debt | 4.6% | 4.6% |
| Tax rate | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 1 | 1 |
| After-tax WACC | 6.1% | 8.5% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $290 | $3,310M | 75.6% |
| 10-Year Growth | $343 | $3,937M | 58.8% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $236 | $2,682M | 69.9% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $292 | $3,340M | 51.4% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $140M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.5% - 6.1% |
| Enterprise Value | $1,653M - $2,283M |
| Net Debt | $(110)M |
| Equity Value | $1,762M - $2,393M |
| Outstanding Shares | 12M |
| Fair Value | $149 - $203 |
| Selected Fair Value | $129.97 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $1724M |
| Enterprise Value | $1643M |
| Trailing P/E | 27.57 |
| Forward P/E | 11.02 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 5.05 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 198.26% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | -10.43% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 1.13 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $75.93 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $53.48 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $28.43 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $8.10 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $13.00 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $178.94 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Centamin PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $178.94, which is approximately 22.6% above the current market price of $146.00.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Centamin PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.