As of October 25, 2025, CellaVision AB has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $184.96 per share. With the current market price at $187.40, this represents a potential upside of -1.3%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $160.98 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $184.96 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -14.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -1.3% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.5% - 8.2% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $723 million in 12-2024 to $1362 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.5%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 723 | 7% |
| 12-2025 | 780 | 8% |
| 12-2026 | 831 | 6% |
| 12-2027 | 877 | 6% |
| 12-2028 | 922 | 5% |
| 12-2029 | 995 | 8% |
| 12-2030 | 1061 | 7% |
| 12-2031 | 1139 | 7% |
| 12-2032 | 1219 | 7% |
| 12-2033 | 1284 | 5% |
| 12-2034 | 1362 | 6% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 19% in 12-2024 to 19% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 141 | 19% |
| 12-2025 | 152 | 19% |
| 12-2026 | 162 | 19% |
| 12-2027 | 171 | 19% |
| 12-2028 | 179 | 19% |
| 12-2029 | 194 | 19% |
| 12-2030 | 206 | 19% |
| 12-2031 | 222 | 19% |
| 12-2032 | 237 | 19% |
| 12-2033 | 250 | 19% |
| 12-2034 | 265 | 19% |
with a 5-year average of $64 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 10% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 73 |
| 12-2026 | 79 |
| 12-2027 | 83 |
| 12-2028 | 85 |
| 12-2029 | 89 |
| 12-2030 | 95 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 53 |
| Days Inventory | 222 |
| Days Payables | 64 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | 132 | 19 | 40 | 15 | 59 |
| 2026 | 284 | 42 | 84 | 9 | 148 |
| 2027 | 299 | 44 | 89 | 12 | 154 |
| 2028 | 311 | 46 | 94 | 15 | 156 |
| 2029 | 334 | 50 | 101 | 19 | 164 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 160.98 | -14.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 184.96 | -1.3% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 175.13 | -6.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 199.55 | 6.5% |
Is CellaVision AB (CEVI.ST) a buy or a sell? CellaVision AB is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, CellaVision AB (CEVI.ST) appears to be fairly valued with upside potential of -1.3%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a hold at the current market price of $187.40.