As of June 14, 2025, CES Energy Solutions Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $14.95 per share. With the current market price at $6.92, this represents a potential upside of 116.0%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $11.23 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $14.95 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 62.3% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 116.0% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.5% - 9.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $2354 million in 12-2024 to $4933 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 2354 | 9% |
| 12-2025 | 2529 | 7% |
| 12-2026 | 2803 | 11% |
| 12-2027 | 3016 | 8% |
| 12-2028 | 3245 | 8% |
| 12-2029 | 3537 | 9% |
| 12-2030 | 3851 | 9% |
| 12-2031 | 4158 | 8% |
| 12-2032 | 4342 | 4% |
| 12-2033 | 4698 | 8% |
| 12-2034 | 4933 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 8% in 12-2024 to 8% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 191 | 8% |
| 12-2025 | 205 | 8% |
| 12-2026 | 228 | 8% |
| 12-2027 | 245 | 8% |
| 12-2028 | 263 | 8% |
| 12-2029 | 287 | 8% |
| 12-2030 | 313 | 8% |
| 12-2031 | 338 | 8% |
| 12-2032 | 353 | 8% |
| 12-2033 | 381 | 8% |
| 12-2034 | 401 | 8% |
with a 5-year average of $57 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 68 |
| 12-2026 | 80 |
| 12-2027 | 89 |
| 12-2028 | 94 |
| 12-2029 | 98 |
| 12-2030 | 107 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 55 |
| Days Inventory | 94 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 266 | 36 | 62 | 317 | (149) |
| 2026 | 398 | 53 | 91 | (13) | 266 |
| 2027 | 431 | 57 | 98 | (13) | 289 |
| 2028 | 462 | 62 | 105 | 161 | 133 |
| 2029 | 500 | 67 | 115 | 50 | 267 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 11.23 | 62.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 14.95 | 116.0% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 7.36 | 6.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 10.73 | 55.1% |
Is CES Energy Solutions Corp (CEU.TO) a buy or a sell? CES Energy Solutions Corp is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, CES Energy Solutions Corp (CEU.TO) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 116.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $6.92.