As of June 13, 2025, Cerus Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.24 per share. With the current market price at $1.42, this represents a potential upside of -83.2%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.24 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -143.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -83.2% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.8% - 10.3% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $201 million in 12-2024 to $555 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 201 | 8% |
| 12-2025 | 222 | 10% |
| 12-2026 | 243 | 9% |
| 12-2027 | 267 | 10% |
| 12-2028 | 297 | 11% |
| 12-2029 | 335 | 13% |
| 12-2030 | 380 | 13% |
| 12-2031 | 427 | 12% |
| 12-2032 | 465 | 9% |
| 12-2033 | 510 | 10% |
| 12-2034 | 555 | 9% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -10% in 12-2024 to 0% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | (21) | -10% |
| 12-2025 | (18) | -8% |
| 12-2026 | (15) | -6% |
| 12-2027 | (12) | -5% |
| 12-2028 | (8) | -3% |
| 12-2029 | (4) | -1% |
| 12-2030 | (3) | -1% |
| 12-2031 | (3) | -1% |
| 12-2032 | (1) | 0% |
| 12-2033 | (0) | 0% |
| 12-2034 | 2 | 0% |
with a 5-year average of $2 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 3 |
| 12-2026 | 3 |
| 12-2027 | 4 |
| 12-2028 | 3 |
| 12-2029 | 4 |
| 12-2030 | 4 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 63 |
| Days Inventory | 174 |
| Days Payables | 128 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | (5) | (0) | 2 | 2 | (9) |
| 2026 | (2) | (0) | 3 | 9 | (14) |
| 2027 | 3 | (0) | 4 | 2 | (3) |
| 2028 | 7 | (0) | 4 | 6 | (3) |
| 2029 | 14 | (0) | 5 | 8 | 1 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -143.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.24 | -83.2% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.49 | -65.2% |
Is Cerus Corp (CERS) a buy or a sell? Cerus Corp is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Cerus Corp (CERS) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -83.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $1.42.