As of June 20, 2025, Celsius Holdings Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $6.96 to $170.85 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $170.85 | +287.7% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $43.79 | -0.6% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $80.17 | +81.9% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $26.10 | -40.8% |
| Earnings Power Value | $6.96 | -84.2% |
Is Celsius Holdings Inc (CELH) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $44.07, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Celsius Holdings Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.43 | 0.57 |
| Cost of equity | 5.8% | 8.1% |
| Cost of debt | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax rate | 22.5% | 23.8% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0 | 0 |
| After-tax WACC | 5.8% | 8.1% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $44 | $10,308M | 90.1% |
| 10-Year Growth | $171 | $43,057M | 86.1% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $45 | $10,673M | 90.5% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $119 | $29,752M | 79.9% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $55M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.1% - 5.8% |
| Enterprise Value | $686M - $948M |
| Net Debt | $(977)M |
| Equity Value | $1,664M - $1,925M |
| Outstanding Shares | 258M |
| Fair Value | $6 - $7 |
| Selected Fair Value | $6.96 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $11359M |
| Enterprise Value | $10381M |
| Trailing P/E | 101.70 |
| Forward P/E | 69.34 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 13.00 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 25.87% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.00 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $51.25 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $10.95 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $16.03 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $3.92 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $0.70 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $82.85 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Celsius Holdings Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $82.85, which is approximately 88.0% above the current market price of $44.07.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Celsius Holdings Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.