As of June 19, 2025, Concord Medical Services Holdings Ltd has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $5.88, this represents a potential upside of -21038.3%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -19295.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -21038.3% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.7% - 6.7% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $384 million in 12-2024 to $850 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.3%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 384 | - |
| 12-2025 | 405 | 6% |
| 12-2026 | 440 | 9% |
| 12-2027 | 496 | 13% |
| 12-2028 | 542 | 9% |
| 12-2029 | 574 | 6% |
| 12-2030 | 606 | 6% |
| 12-2031 | 661 | 9% |
| 12-2032 | 725 | 10% |
| 12-2033 | 793 | 9% |
| 12-2034 | 850 | 7% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -170% in 12-2024 to -136% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | (652) | -170% |
| 12-2025 | (652) | -161% |
| 12-2026 | (684) | -155% |
| 12-2027 | (745) | -150% |
| 12-2028 | (788) | -145% |
| 12-2029 | (808) | -141% |
| 12-2030 | (847) | -140% |
| 12-2031 | (918) | -139% |
| 12-2032 | (1,000) | -138% |
| 12-2033 | (1,088) | -137% |
| 12-2034 | (1,158) | -136% |
with a 5-year average of $195 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 63% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 211 |
| 12-2026 | 206 |
| 12-2027 | 224 |
| 12-2028 | 268 |
| 12-2029 | 308 |
| 12-2030 | 333 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 34 |
| Days Inventory | 33 |
| Days Payables | 106 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | (472) | (31) | 254 | 110 | (805) |
| 2026 | (510) | (32) | 276 | (43) | (710) |
| 2027 | (557) | (35) | 311 | (17) | (816) |
| 2028 | (557) | (37) | 340 | 21 | (880) |
| 2029 | (538) | (38) | 360 | (12) | (847) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -19295.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -21038.3% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Concord Medical Services Holdings Ltd (CCM) a buy or a sell? Concord Medical Services Holdings Ltd is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Concord Medical Services Holdings Ltd (CCM) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -21038.3%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $5.88.