As of April 4, 2026, Carnival Corp's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $28.33 to $109.86 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $109.86 | +328.5% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $28.33 | +10.5% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $58.60 | +128.6% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $38.55 | +50.4% |
| Earnings Power Value | $57.78 | +125.4% |
Is Carnival Corp (CCL) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $25.64, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Carnival Corp's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.89 | 1.18 |
| Cost of equity | 8.0% | 11.5% |
| Cost of debt | 4.9% | 5.6% |
| Tax rate | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| After-tax WACC | 6.6% | 8.9% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $28 | $63,951M | 98.1% |
| 10-Year Growth | $110 | $176,879M | 83.2% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $97 | $158,845M | 99.2% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $134 | $210,718M | 85.9% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $7,985M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.9% - 6.6% |
| Enterprise Value | $89,313M - $120,188M |
| Net Debt | $24,712M |
| Equity Value | $64,601M - $95,476M |
| Outstanding Shares | 1,385M |
| Fair Value | $47 - $69 |
| Selected Fair Value | $57.78 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $35515M |
| Enterprise Value | $60227M |
| Trailing P/E | 12.87 |
| Forward P/E | 10.06 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 9.30 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | -100.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.75 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $32.96 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $7.08 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $11.72 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $5.78 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $5.78 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $63.32 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Carnival Corp's intrinsic value is $63.32, which is approximately 147.0% above the current market price of $25.64.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Carnival Corp is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.