What is CCA.TO's Intrinsic value?

Cogeco Communications Inc (CCA.TO) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of December 15, 2025, Cogeco Communications Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $83.01 to $288.08 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $168.58 +154.0%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $145.12 +118.7%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $84.48 +27.3%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $83.01 +25.1%
Earnings Power Value $288.08 +334.1%

Is Cogeco Communications Inc (CCA.TO) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $66.37, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Cogeco Communications Inc's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.2% 3.7%
Equity market risk premium 5.1% 6.1%
Adjusted beta 0.7 1.22
Cost of equity 6.7% 11.6%
Cost of debt 5.2% 6.3%
Tax rate 18.1% 19.2%
Debt/Equity ratio 1.62 1.62
After-tax WACC 5.2% 7.6%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 6.4% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $2,910 (FY08-2025) to $3,740 (FY08-2035)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 12% to 12%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 27% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $145 $10,616M 74.4%
10-Year Growth $169 $11,608M 57.3%
5-Year EBITDA $100 $8,707M 68.7%
10-Year EBITDA $129 $9,948M 50.2%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 48.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 9.2%
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.5%
  • Fair value: $84.48 (27.3% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 11.6% (Low) to 6.7% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.0% (Low) to 1.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $46 to $120
  • Selected fair value: $83.01 (25.1% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $1,029M
Discount Rate (WACC) 7.6% - 5.2%
Enterprise Value $13,577M - $19,744M
Net Debt $4,481M
Equity Value $9,096M - $15,264M
Outstanding Shares 42M
Fair Value $215 - $361
Selected Fair Value $288.08

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $2806M
Enterprise Value $7287M
Trailing P/E 8.70
Forward P/E 7.69
Trailing EV/EBITDA 5.15
Current Dividend Yield 551.36%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 6.33%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 1.62

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $50.57
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $36.28
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $16.90
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $12.45
Earnings Power Value 10% $28.81
Weighted Average 100% $145.01

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Cogeco Communications Inc's intrinsic value is $145.01, which is approximately 118.5% above the current market price of $66.37.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (12% to 12% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Historical dividend growth of 6.33%

Given these factors, we believe Cogeco Communications Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.