As of June 9, 2025, Caseys General Stores Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $696.17 per share. With the current market price at $444.04, this represents a potential upside of 56.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $543.58 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $696.17 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 22.4% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 56.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.1% - 7.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $14863 million in 04-2024 to $22223 million by 04-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 04-2024 | 14863 | 2% |
| 04-2025 | 15716 | 6% |
| 04-2026 | 16557 | 5% |
| 04-2027 | 16888 | 2% |
| 04-2028 | 17683 | 5% |
| 04-2029 | 18037 | 2% |
| 04-2030 | 19071 | 6% |
| 04-2031 | 19550 | 3% |
| 04-2032 | 20023 | 2% |
| 04-2033 | 21131 | 6% |
| 04-2034 | 22223 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 3% in 04-2024 to 9% by 04-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 04-2024 | 502 | 3% |
| 04-2025 | 721 | 5% |
| 04-2026 | 953 | 6% |
| 04-2027 | 1165 | 7% |
| 04-2028 | 1418 | 8% |
| 04-2029 | 1645 | 9% |
| 04-2030 | 1739 | 9% |
| 04-2031 | 1783 | 9% |
| 04-2032 | 1826 | 9% |
| 04-2033 | 1927 | 9% |
| 04-2034 | 2027 | 9% |
with a 5-year average of $441 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 4% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 04-2025 | 473 |
| 04-2026 | 511 |
| 04-2027 | 574 |
| 04-2028 | 614 |
| 04-2029 | 647 |
| 04-2030 | 672 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 3 |
| Days Inventory | 13 |
| Days Payables | 19 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M/2025 | 367 | 54 | 150 | (10) | 172 |
| 2026 | 1809 | 286 | 631 | 14 | 878 |
| 2027 | 2150 | 350 | 643 | 8 | 1149 |
| 2028 | 2521 | 426 | 673 | (6) | 1428 |
| 2029 | 2850 | 494 | 687 | 7 | 1663 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 543.58 | 22.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 696.17 | 56.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 493.45 | 11.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 631.45 | 42.2% |
Is Caseys General Stores Inc (CASY) a buy or a sell? Caseys General Stores Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Caseys General Stores Inc (CASY) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 56.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $444.04.