As of June 6, 2025, Caspian Sunrise PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $0.34 to $3.57 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $3.57 | +39.9% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $3.31 | +29.6% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $3.16 | +24.0% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $2.09 | -17.9% |
| Earnings Power Value | $0.34 | -86.6% |
Is Caspian Sunrise PLC (CASP.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $2.55, the stock appears to be moderately undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Caspian Sunrise PLC's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 6.0% | 7.0% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.63 | 1.4 |
| Cost of equity | 7.8% | 14.8% |
| Cost of debt | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax rate | 19.0% | 19.0% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| After-tax WACC | 7.5% | 14.0% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $4 | $118M | 70.2% |
| 10-Year Growth | $5 | $126M | 47.0% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $8 | $192M | 81.8% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $7 | $178M | 62.4% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $2M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 14.0% - 7.5% |
| Enterprise Value | $15M - $29M |
| Net Debt | $11M |
| Equity Value | $4M - $18M |
| Outstanding Shares | 24M |
| Fair Value | $0 - $1 |
| Selected Fair Value | $0.34 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $61M |
| Enterprise Value | $69M |
| Trailing P/E | 14.61 |
| Forward P/E | 5.41 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 8.80 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 353.55% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.08 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $1.07 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $0.83 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $0.63 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $0.31 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $0.03 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $2.88 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Caspian Sunrise PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $2.88, which is approximately 12.8% above the current market price of $2.55.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Caspian Sunrise PLC is currently moderately undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.