As of May 31, 2025, Prosegur Cash SA's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $0.58 to $1.78 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $1.49 | +84.6% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $1.30 | +60.8% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $0.58 | -28.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $0.60 | -25.1% |
| Earnings Power Value | $1.78 | +120.4% |
Is Prosegur Cash SA (CASH.MC) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $0.81, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Prosegur Cash SA's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.1% | 3.6% |
| Equity market risk premium | 7.4% | 8.4% |
| Adjusted beta | 1.05 | 1.41 |
| Cost of equity | 10.9% | 16.0% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Tax rate | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 1.03 | 1.03 |
| After-tax WACC | 6.9% | 9.6% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $1 | $2,694M | 69.4% |
| 10-Year Growth | $1 | $2,980M | 49.6% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $1 | $1,809M | 54.3% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $1 | $2,267M | 33.8% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $273M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.6% - 6.9% |
| Enterprise Value | $2,848M - $3,969M |
| Net Debt | $768M |
| Equity Value | $2,080M - $3,201M |
| Outstanding Shares | 1,485M |
| Fair Value | $1 - $2 |
| Selected Fair Value | $1.78 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $1198M |
| Enterprise Value | $1966M |
| Trailing P/E | 9.01 |
| Forward P/E | 9.41 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 3.75 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 460.71% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 16.72% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 1.03 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $0.45 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $0.32 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $0.12 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $0.09 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $0.18 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $1.16 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Prosegur Cash SA's weighted average intrinsic value is $1.16, which is approximately 43.2% above the current market price of $0.81.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Prosegur Cash SA is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.