As of June 19, 2025, Canadian Apartment Properties Real Estate Investment Trust has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $48.87 per share. With the current market price at $43.75, this represents a potential upside of 11.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $48.68 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $48.87 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 11.3% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 11.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.0% - 9.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1113 million in 12-2024 to $1334 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 1.8%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 1113 | 4% |
| 12-2025 | 1037 | -7% |
| 12-2026 | 1076 | 4% |
| 12-2027 | 1098 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 1128 | 3% |
| 12-2029 | 1151 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 1174 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 1224 | 4% |
| 12-2032 | 1265 | 3% |
| 12-2033 | 1291 | 2% |
| 12-2034 | 1334 | 3% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 26% in 12-2024 to 34% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 293 | 26% |
| 12-2025 | 289 | 28% |
| 12-2026 | 315 | 29% |
| 12-2027 | 336 | 31% |
| 12-2028 | 360 | 32% |
| 12-2029 | 381 | 33% |
| 12-2030 | 392 | 33% |
| 12-2031 | 412 | 34% |
| 12-2032 | 428 | 34% |
| 12-2033 | 440 | 34% |
| 12-2034 | 458 | 34% |
with a 5-year average of $1 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 0% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 1 |
| 12-2026 | 1 |
| 12-2027 | 1 |
| 12-2028 | 1 |
| 12-2029 | 1 |
| 12-2030 | 1 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 4 |
| Days Inventory | 8 |
| Days Payables | 47 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 374 | 29 | 0 | 1 | 344 |
| 2026 | 536 | 42 | 1 | 5 | 488 |
| 2027 | 564 | 45 | 1 | (0) | 518 |
| 2028 | 596 | 49 | 1 | 1 | 545 |
| 2029 | 623 | 51 | 1 | 2 | 569 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 48.68 | 11.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 48.87 | 11.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 22.32 | -49.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 26.73 | -38.9% |
Is Canadian Apartment Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (CAR.UN.TO) a buy or a sell? Canadian Apartment Properties Real Estate Investment Trust is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Canadian Apartment Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (CAR.UN.TO) appears to be moderately undervalued with upside potential of 11.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a buy at the current market price of $43.75.