As of May 22, 2025, Cambria Automobiles PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $99.86 per share. With the current market price at $82.50, this represents a potential upside of 21.0%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $105.89 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $99.86 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 28.4% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 21.0% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.1% - 9.4% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $524 million in 08-2020 to $591 million by 08-2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 1.2%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 08-2020 | 524 | 20% |
| 08-2021 | 440 | -16% |
| 08-2022 | 452 | 3% |
| 08-2023 | 461 | 2% |
| 08-2024 | 470 | 2% |
| 08-2025 | 484 | 3% |
| 08-2026 | 500 | 3% |
| 08-2027 | 520 | 4% |
| 08-2028 | 549 | 6% |
| 08-2029 | 560 | 2% |
| 08-2030 | 591 | 6% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 2% in 08-2020 to 2% by 08-2030, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 08-2020 | 8 | 2% |
| 08-2021 | 7 | 2% |
| 08-2022 | 7 | 2% |
| 08-2023 | 7 | 2% |
| 08-2024 | 7 | 2% |
| 08-2025 | 8 | 2% |
| 08-2026 | 8 | 2% |
| 08-2027 | 8 | 2% |
| 08-2028 | 8 | 2% |
| 08-2029 | 9 | 2% |
| 08-2030 | 9 | 2% |
with a 5-year average of $13 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 08-2021 | 13 |
| 08-2022 | 13 |
| 08-2023 | 11 |
| 08-2024 | 8 |
| 08-2025 | 9 |
| 08-2026 | 9 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 5 |
| Days Inventory | 65 |
| Days Payables | 41 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2021 | 11 | 1 | 4 | (3) | 9 |
| 2022 | 23 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 12 |
| 2023 | 20 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 9 |
| 2024 | 18 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 6 |
| 2025 | 19 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 7 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 105.89 | 28.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 99.86 | 21.0% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 105.79 | 28.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 108.64 | 31.7% |
Is Cambria Automobiles PLC (CAMB.L) a buy or a sell? Cambria Automobiles PLC is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Cambria Automobiles PLC (CAMB.L) appears to be moderately undervalued with upside potential of 21.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a buy at the current market price of $82.50.