As of May 8, 2026, Cal-Maine Foods Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $155.26 to $345.58 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $345.58 | +356.3% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $310.33 | +309.7% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $192.62 | +154.3% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $155.26 | +105.0% |
| Earnings Power Value | $217.40 | +187.0% |
Is Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $75.74, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Cal-Maine Foods Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.73 | 0.99 |
| Cost of equity | 7.2% | 10.4% |
| Cost of debt | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax rate | 23.7% | 24.1% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 1 | 1 |
| After-tax WACC | 5.5% | 7.1% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $310 | $14,311M | 78.2% |
| 10-Year Growth | $346 | $15,981M | 60.6% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $224 | $10,216M | 69.5% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $270 | $12,382M | 49.1% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $616M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.1% - 5.5% |
| Enterprise Value | $8,666M - $11,150M |
| Net Debt | $(392)M |
| Equity Value | $9,059M - $11,542M |
| Outstanding Shares | 47M |
| Fair Value | $191 - $244 |
| Selected Fair Value | $217.40 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $3589M |
| Enterprise Value | $3196M |
| Trailing P/E | 5.16 |
| Forward P/E | 4.08 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 7.05 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 1063.69% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 273.35% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.92 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $103.67 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $77.58 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $38.52 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $23.29 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $21.74 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $264.81 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Cal-Maine Foods Inc's intrinsic value is $264.81, which is approximately 249.6% above the current market price of $75.74.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Cal-Maine Foods Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.