What is CALM's Intrinsic value?

Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 8, 2026, Cal-Maine Foods Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $155.26 to $345.58 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $345.58 +356.3%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $310.33 +309.7%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $192.62 +154.3%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $155.26 +105.0%
Earnings Power Value $217.40 +187.0%

Is Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $75.74, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Cal-Maine Foods Inc's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.9% 4.4%
Equity market risk premium 4.6% 5.6%
Adjusted beta 0.73 0.99
Cost of equity 7.2% 10.4%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 23.7% 24.1%
Debt/Equity ratio 1 1
After-tax WACC 5.5% 7.1%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 6.3% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $4,262 (FY05-2025) to $3,798 (FY05-2035)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 29% to 29%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 5% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $310 $14,311M 78.2%
10-Year Growth $346 $15,981M 60.6%
5-Year EBITDA $224 $10,216M 69.5%
10-Year EBITDA $270 $12,382M 49.1%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 55.3%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 8.8%
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.5%
  • Fair value: $192.62 (154.3% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 10.4% (Low) to 7.2% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.0% (Low) to 1.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $99 to $212
  • Selected fair value: $155.26 (105.0% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $616M
Discount Rate (WACC) 7.1% - 5.5%
Enterprise Value $8,666M - $11,150M
Net Debt $(392)M
Equity Value $9,059M - $11,542M
Outstanding Shares 47M
Fair Value $191 - $244
Selected Fair Value $217.40

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $3589M
Enterprise Value $3196M
Trailing P/E 5.16
Forward P/E 4.08
Trailing EV/EBITDA 7.05
Current Dividend Yield 1063.69%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 273.35%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.92

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $103.67
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $77.58
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $38.52
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $23.29
Earnings Power Value 10% $21.74
Weighted Average 100% $264.81

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Cal-Maine Foods Inc's intrinsic value is $264.81, which is approximately 249.6% above the current market price of $75.74.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (29% to 29% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Historical dividend growth of 273.35%

Given these factors, we believe Cal-Maine Foods Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.