As of May 23, 2025, Big Yellow Group PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $973.00, this represents a potential upside of 28.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 7.6% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 28.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.5% - 8.6% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $200 million in 03-2024 to $306 million by 03-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.3%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2024 | 200 | 6% |
| 03-2025 | 206 | 3% |
| 03-2026 | 215 | 4% |
| 03-2027 | 223 | 4% |
| 03-2028 | 235 | 5% |
| 03-2029 | 251 | 7% |
| 03-2030 | 265 | 6% |
| 03-2031 | 274 | 3% |
| 03-2032 | 287 | 5% |
| 03-2033 | 297 | 4% |
| 03-2034 | 306 | 3% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 120% in 03-2024 to 120% by 03-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2024 | 240 | 120% |
| 03-2025 | 248 | 120% |
| 03-2026 | 258 | 120% |
| 03-2027 | 268 | 120% |
| 03-2028 | 283 | 120% |
| 03-2029 | 302 | 120% |
| 03-2030 | 319 | 120% |
| 03-2031 | 329 | 120% |
| 03-2032 | 345 | 120% |
| 03-2033 | 357 | 120% |
| 03-2034 | 368 | 120% |
with a 5-year average of $76 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 47% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 03-2025 | 83 |
| 03-2026 | 88 |
| 03-2027 | 88 |
| 03-2028 | 89 |
| 03-2029 | 107 |
| 03-2030 | 113 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 11 |
| Days Inventory | 3 |
| Days Payables | 28 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | 111 | 1 | 49 | (1) | 63 |
| 2026 | 233 | 1 | 102 | 1 | 130 |
| 2027 | 239 | 1 | 106 | 0 | 132 |
| 2028 | 248 | 1 | 111 | (0) | 136 |
| 2029 | 277 | 2 | 119 | 0 | 156 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | 7.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | 28.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 1911.68 | 96.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 2009.47 | 106.5% |
Is Big Yellow Group PLC (BYG.L) a buy or a sell? Big Yellow Group PLC is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Big Yellow Group PLC (BYG.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of 28.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $973.00.