As of June 7, 2025, Bayan Resources Tbk PT's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $5499.39 to $9416.04 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $9416.04 | -52.4% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $8811.30 | -55.4% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $7213.02 | -63.5% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $5499.39 | -72.2% |
| Earnings Power Value | $5797.83 | -70.7% |
Is Bayan Resources Tbk PT (BYAN.JK) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $19775.00, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Bayan Resources Tbk PT's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 6.6% | 7.1% |
| Equity market risk premium | 7.9% | 8.9% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.47 | 0.55 |
| Cost of equity | 10.3% | 12.5% |
| Cost of debt | 7.0% | 7.0% |
| Tax rate | 21.7% | 21.8% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| After-tax WACC | 10.3% | 12.4% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $1 | $17,548M | 71.7% |
| 10-Year Growth | $1 | $18,787M | 50.7% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $1 | $24,474M | 79.7% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $1 | $23,787M | 61.1% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $1,281M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 12.4% - 10.3% |
| Enterprise Value | $10,316M - $12,436M |
| Net Debt | $(498)M |
| Equity Value | $10,815M - $12,935M |
| Outstanding Shares | 33,333M |
| Fair Value | $0 - $0 |
| Selected Fair Value | $5797.83 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $659166600M |
| Enterprise Value | $651054850M |
| Trailing P/E | 43.55 |
| Forward P/E | 37.07 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 15.10 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 148.14% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 86.12% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.01 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $2824.81 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $2202.83 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $1442.60 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $824.91 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $579.78 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $7874.93 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Bayan Resources Tbk PT's weighted average intrinsic value is $7874.93, which is approximately 60.2% below the current market price of $19775.00.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Bayan Resources Tbk PT is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.