What is BVI.PA's Intrinsic value?

Bureau Veritas SA (BVI.PA) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of August 2, 2025, Bureau Veritas SA's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $21.26 to $60.25 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $27.14 +2.7%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $25.13 -4.9%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $21.87 -17.3%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $21.26 -19.6%
Earnings Power Value $60.25 +127.9%

Is Bureau Veritas SA (BVI.PA) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $26.44, the stock appears to be fairly valued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Bureau Veritas SA's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.0% 3.5%
Equity market risk premium 5.8% 6.8%
Adjusted beta 0.62 0.69
Cost of equity 6.6% 8.7%
Cost of debt 4.0% 4.5%
Tax rate 31.8% 32.1%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.23 0.23
After-tax WACC 5.9% 7.6%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 6.8% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $6,241 (FY12-2024) to $10,108 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 9% to 9%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 2% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $25 $13,076M 81.5%
10-Year Growth $27 $13,988M 65.4%
5-Year EBITDA $13 $7,373M 67.1%
10-Year EBITDA $17 $9,441M 48.7%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 71.5%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 7.7%
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0%
  • Fair value: $21.87 (-17.3% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 8.7% (Low) to 6.6% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0% (Low) to 3.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $11 to $31
  • Selected fair value: $21.26 (-19.6% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $1,933M
Discount Rate (WACC) 7.6% - 5.9%
Enterprise Value $25,281M - $32,745M
Net Debt $1,669M
Equity Value $23,612M - $31,076M
Outstanding Shares 454M
Fair Value $52 - $68
Selected Fair Value $60.25

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $12000M
Enterprise Value $13669M
Trailing P/E 21.08
Forward P/E 19.45
Trailing EV/EBITDA 5.50
Current Dividend Yield 324.12%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 89.13%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.23

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $8.14
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $6.28
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $4.37
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $3.19
Earnings Power Value 10% $6.02
Weighted Average 100% $28.01

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Bureau Veritas SA's intrinsic value is $28.01, which is approximately 6.0% above the current market price of $26.44.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (9% to 9% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.23)
  • Historical dividend growth of 89.13%

Given these factors, we believe Bureau Veritas SA is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.