As of June 18, 2025, Bounty Oil and Gas NL has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.00, this represents a potential upside of -480.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -583.9% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -480.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 4.9% - 7.5% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $2 million in 06-2024 to $1 million by 06-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately -6.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 06-2024 | 2 | 9% |
| 06-2025 | 1 | -25% |
| 06-2026 | 1 | 2% |
| 06-2027 | 1 | 2% |
| 06-2028 | 1 | 2% |
| 06-2029 | 1 | 3% |
| 06-2030 | 1 | 2% |
| 06-2031 | 1 | 2% |
| 06-2032 | 1 | 2% |
| 06-2033 | 1 | 2% |
| 06-2034 | 1 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -57% in 06-2024 to -23% by 06-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 06-2024 | (1) | -57% |
| 06-2025 | (0) | -37% |
| 06-2026 | (0) | -34% |
| 06-2027 | (0) | -31% |
| 06-2028 | (0) | -28% |
| 06-2029 | (0) | -26% |
| 06-2030 | (0) | -25% |
| 06-2031 | (0) | -25% |
| 06-2032 | (0) | -24% |
| 06-2033 | (0) | -24% |
| 06-2034 | (0) | -23% |
with a 5-year average of $1 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 34% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 06-2025 | 1 |
| 06-2026 | 1 |
| 06-2027 | 0 |
| 06-2028 | 0 |
| 06-2029 | 0 |
| 06-2030 | 0 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 21 |
| Days Inventory | 9 |
| Days Payables | 406 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | (1) |
| 2026 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| 2027 | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| 2028 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | (1) |
| 2029 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -583.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -480.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | NaN% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | NaN% |
Is Bounty Oil and Gas NL (BUY.AX) a buy or a sell? Bounty Oil and Gas NL is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Bounty Oil and Gas NL (BUY.AX) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -480.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.00.