As of June 13, 2025, Bumi Resources Tbk PT has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $118.40 per share. With the current market price at $138.00, this represents a potential upside of -14.2%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $78.05 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $118.40 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -43.4% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -14.2% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.4% - 12.4% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1360 million in 12-2024 to $2020 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.0%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 1360 | 19% |
| 12-2025 | 1452 | 7% |
| 12-2026 | 1481 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 1528 | 3% |
| 12-2028 | 1564 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 1635 | 5% |
| 12-2030 | 1747 | 7% |
| 12-2031 | 1844 | 6% |
| 12-2032 | 1885 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 1930 | 2% |
| 12-2034 | 2020 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 7% in 12-2024 to 25% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 94 | 7% |
| 12-2025 | 149 | 10% |
| 12-2026 | 199 | 13% |
| 12-2027 | 252 | 16% |
| 12-2028 | 303 | 19% |
| 12-2029 | 362 | 22% |
| 12-2030 | 395 | 23% |
| 12-2031 | 427 | 23% |
| 12-2032 | 446 | 24% |
| 12-2033 | 466 | 24% |
| 12-2034 | 498 | 25% |
with a 5-year average of $88 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 7% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 108 |
| 12-2026 | 82 |
| 12-2027 | 78 |
| 12-2028 | 89 |
| 12-2029 | 108 |
| 12-2030 | 112 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 32 |
| Days Inventory | 9 |
| Days Payables | 46 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 157 | 34 | 77 | 50 | (3) |
| 2026 | 248 | 60 | 104 | (11) | 95 |
| 2027 | 309 | 76 | 108 | (1) | 127 |
| 2028 | 385 | 91 | 110 | 18 | 166 |
| 2029 | 475 | 109 | 115 | 3 | 249 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 78.05 | -43.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 118.40 | -14.2% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 54.52 | -60.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 84.10 | -39.1% |
Is Bumi Resources Tbk PT (BUMI.JK) a buy or a sell? Bumi Resources Tbk PT is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Bumi Resources Tbk PT (BUMI.JK) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -14.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $138.00.