As of May 27, 2025, Burkhalter Holding AG has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $175.98 per share. With the current market price at $128.80, this represents a potential upside of 36.6%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $125.26 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $175.98 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -2.7% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 36.6% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 4.0% - 6.2% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1187 million in 12-2024 to $2274 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 1187 | 5% |
| 12-2025 | 1249 | 5% |
| 12-2026 | 1326 | 6% |
| 12-2027 | 1423 | 7% |
| 12-2028 | 1538 | 8% |
| 12-2029 | 1683 | 9% |
| 12-2030 | 1796 | 7% |
| 12-2031 | 1918 | 7% |
| 12-2032 | 2014 | 5% |
| 12-2033 | 2135 | 6% |
| 12-2034 | 2274 | 7% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 5% in 12-2024 to 5% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 57 | 5% |
| 12-2025 | 59 | 5% |
| 12-2026 | 63 | 5% |
| 12-2027 | 67 | 5% |
| 12-2028 | 73 | 5% |
| 12-2029 | 79 | 5% |
| 12-2030 | 85 | 5% |
| 12-2031 | 90 | 5% |
| 12-2032 | 95 | 5% |
| 12-2033 | 101 | 5% |
| 12-2034 | 107 | 5% |
with a 5-year average of $9 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 11 |
| 12-2026 | 12 |
| 12-2027 | 14 |
| 12-2028 | 14 |
| 12-2029 | 14 |
| 12-2030 | 15 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 100 |
| Days Inventory | 15 |
| Days Payables | 40 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 83 | 13 | 12 | 33 | 25 |
| 2026 | 90 | 14 | 13 | 9 | 54 |
| 2027 | 97 | 15 | 14 | 22 | 46 |
| 2028 | 104 | 16 | 15 | 31 | 41 |
| 2029 | 113 | 17 | 17 | 32 | 47 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 125.26 | -2.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 175.98 | 36.6% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 72.09 | -44.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 97.82 | -24.1% |
Is Burkhalter Holding AG (BRKN.SW) a buy or a sell? Burkhalter Holding AG is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Burkhalter Holding AG (BRKN.SW) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 36.6%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $128.80.