What is BRK.L's Intrinsic value?

Brooks Macdonald Group PLC (BRK.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 12, 2025, Brooks Macdonald Group PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $839.41 to $2183.61 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $863.44 -47.7%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $839.41 -49.1%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $871.77 -47.2%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $2183.61 +32.3%
Earnings Power Value $1970.57 +19.4%

Is Brooks Macdonald Group PLC (BRK.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $1650.00, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Brooks Macdonald Group PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.0% 4.5%
Equity market risk premium 6.0% 7.0%
Adjusted beta 0.69 0.79
Cost of equity 8.1% 10.5%
Cost of debt 4.6% 4.6%
Tax rate 21.3% 27.5%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.02 0.02
After-tax WACC 8.0% 10.4%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 9.2% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $128 (FY06-2024) to $172 (FY06-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 5% to 7%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 3% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $839 $100M 78.5%
10-Year Growth $863 $103M 59.4%
5-Year EBITDA $663 $73M 70.7%
10-Year EBITDA $719 $82M 48.6%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 64.3%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 9.3%
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.5%
  • Fair value: $871.77 (-47.2% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 10.5% (Low) to 8.1% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.5% (Low) to 4.5% (High)
  • Fair value range: $1,130 to $3,237
  • Selected fair value: $2183.61 (32.3% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $24M
Discount Rate (WACC) 10.4% - 8.0%
Enterprise Value $235M - $304M
Net Debt $(26)M
Equity Value $261M - $331M
Outstanding Shares 0M
Fair Value $1,739 - $2,202
Selected Fair Value $1970.57

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $248M
Enterprise Value $221M
Trailing P/E 12.74
Forward P/E 28.28
Trailing EV/EBITDA 5.85
Current Dividend Yield 510.75%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 12.02%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.02

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $259.03
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $209.85
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $174.35
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $327.54
Earnings Power Value 10% $197.06
Weighted Average 100% $1167.84

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Brooks Macdonald Group PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $1167.84, which is approximately 29.2% below the current market price of $1650.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (5% to 7% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.02)
  • Historical dividend growth of 12.02%

Given these factors, we believe Brooks Macdonald Group PLC is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.