What is BREE.L's Intrinsic value?

Breedon Group PLC (BREE.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of December 15, 2025, Breedon Group PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $298.67 to $1643.91 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $386.43 +19.9%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $348.18 +8.0%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $339.01 +5.2%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $298.67 -7.4%
Earnings Power Value $1643.91 +409.9%

Is Breedon Group PLC (BREE.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $322.40, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Breedon Group PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.0% 4.5%
Equity market risk premium 6.0% 7.0%
Adjusted beta 0.92 1.03
Cost of equity 9.5% 12.2%
Cost of debt 4.0% 5.1%
Tax rate 22.5% 25.9%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.39 0.39
After-tax WACC 7.7% 9.8%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 8.8% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $1,576 (FY12-2024) to $2,610 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 6% to 6%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 7% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $348 $1,859M 77.4%
10-Year Growth $386 $1,992M 59.2%
5-Year EBITDA $247 $1,506M 72.1%
10-Year EBITDA $301 $1,695M 52.1%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 56.7%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 10.9%
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.0%
  • Fair value: $339.01 (5.2% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 12.2% (Low) to 9.5% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0% (Low) to 4.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $177 to $420
  • Selected fair value: $298.67 (-7.4% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $551M
Discount Rate (WACC) 9.8% - 7.7%
Enterprise Value $5,600M - $7,128M
Net Debt $648M
Equity Value $4,952M - $6,480M
Outstanding Shares 3M
Fair Value $1,424 - $1,864
Selected Fair Value $1643.91

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $1121M
Enterprise Value $1769M
Trailing P/E 12.51
Forward P/E 10.91
Trailing EV/EBITDA 5.25
Current Dividend Yield 453.15%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.39

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $115.93
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $87.04
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $67.80
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $44.80
Earnings Power Value 10% $164.39
Weighted Average 100% $479.97

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Breedon Group PLC's intrinsic value is $479.97, which is approximately 48.9% above the current market price of $322.40.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (6% to 6% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Breedon Group PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.