What is BRCK.L's Intrinsic value?

Brickability Group PLC (BRCK.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 18, 2025, Brickability Group PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $35.72 to $342.92 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $342.92 +408.8%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $209.51 +210.8%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $237.49 +252.4%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $35.72 -47.0%
Earnings Power Value $115.12 +70.8%

Is Brickability Group PLC (BRCK.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $67.40, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Brickability Group PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.0% 4.5%
Equity market risk premium 6.0% 7.0%
Adjusted beta 0.56 0.96
Cost of equity 7.4% 11.7%
Cost of debt 5.4% 7.1%
Tax rate 22.2% 25.6%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.41 0.41
After-tax WACC 6.4% 9.8%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 8.1% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $594 (FY03-2024) to $1,304 (FY03-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 3% to 9%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 2% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $210 $735M 80.0%
10-Year Growth $343 $1,156M 65.2%
5-Year EBITDA $178 $635M 76.8%
10-Year EBITDA $274 $940M 57.2%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 129.2%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 9.5%
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0%
  • Fair value: $237.49 (252.4% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 11.7% (Low) to 7.4% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0% (Low) to 3.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $17 to $54
  • Selected fair value: $35.72 (-47.0% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $34M
Discount Rate (WACC) 9.8% - 6.4%
Enterprise Value $346M - $528M
Net Debt $73M
Equity Value $272M - $454M
Outstanding Shares 3M
Fair Value $86 - $144
Selected Fair Value $115.12

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $213M
Enterprise Value $286M
Trailing P/E 25.65
Forward P/E 8.50
Trailing EV/EBITDA 7.30
Current Dividend Yield 489.15%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 49.02%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.41

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $102.88
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $52.38
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $47.50
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $5.36
Earnings Power Value 10% $11.51
Weighted Average 100% $219.62

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Brickability Group PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $219.62, which is approximately 225.8% above the current market price of $67.40.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (3% to 9% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Historical dividend growth of 49.02%

Given these factors, we believe Brickability Group PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.