What is BPMC's DCF valuation?

Blueprint Medicines Corp (BPMC) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of December 15, 2025, Blueprint Medicines Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $129.46, this represents a potential upside of -130.2%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $0.00
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $0.00
Potential Upside (5-year) -126.3%
Potential Upside (10-year) -130.2%
Discount Rate (WACC) 6.0% - 9.0%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Revenue is projected to grow from $509 million in 12-2024 to $1483 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 11.3%.

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
12-2024 509 104%
12-2025 594 17%
12-2026 666 12%
12-2027 750 13%
12-2028 847 13%
12-2029 945 12%
12-2030 1074 14%
12-2031 1159 8%
12-2032 1254 8%
12-2033 1367 9%
12-2034 1483 8%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from -13% in 12-2024 to -12% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
12-2024 (67) -13%
12-2025 (75) -13%
12-2026 (83) -12%
12-2027 (92) -12%
12-2028 (103) -12%
12-2029 (113) -12%
12-2030 (128) -12%
12-2031 (138) -12%
12-2032 (149) -12%
12-2033 (162) -12%
12-2034 (176) -12%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

with a 5-year average of $7 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
12-2025 10
12-2026 13
12-2027 15
12-2028 17
12-2029 21
12-2030 24

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 62
Days Inventory 587
Days Payables 127

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
9M/2025 (25) (0) 12 33 (70)
2026 (34) (0) 18 9 (61)
2027 (36) (0) 21 7 (64)
2028 (40) (0) 23 26 (88)
2029 (41) (1) 26 16 (82)

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 6.0% - 9.0%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 12.4x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -126.3%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -130.2%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $(1,936)M
  • 10-Year Model: $(2,266)M

Investment Conclusion

Is Blueprint Medicines Corp (BPMC) a buy or a sell? Blueprint Medicines Corp is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Blueprint Medicines Corp (BPMC) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -130.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Expanding profit margins (from -13% to -12%)
  • Steady revenue growth (11.3% CAGR)
  • Strong free cash flow generation

Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $129.46.