As of April 4, 2026, Box Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $11.74 to $33.03 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $20.95 | -12.8% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $17.95 | -25.3% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $18.41 | -23.4% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $33.03 | +37.5% |
| Earnings Power Value | $11.74 | -51.1% |
Is Box Inc (BOX) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $24.02, the stock appears to be moderately overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Box Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.54 | 0.66 |
| Cost of equity | 6.3% | 8.6% |
| Cost of debt | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax rate | 26.2% | 27.0% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| After-tax WACC | 6.0% | 8.0% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $18 | $2,561M | 87.1% |
| 10-Year Growth | $21 | $2,977M | 76.4% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $13 | $1,914M | 82.7% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $17 | $2,384M | 70.5% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $117M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.0% - 6.0% |
| Enterprise Value | $1,465M - $1,938M |
| Net Debt | $76M |
| Equity Value | $1,389M - $1,862M |
| Outstanding Shares | 138M |
| Fair Value | $10 - $13 |
| Selected Fair Value | $11.74 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $3326M |
| Enterprise Value | $3401M |
| Trailing P/E | 28.82 |
| Forward P/E | 38.96 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 11.70 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 45.11% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 11.75% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.14 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $6.29 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $4.49 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $3.68 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $4.95 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $1.17 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $20.58 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Box Inc's intrinsic value is $20.58, which is approximately 14.3% below the current market price of $24.02.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Box Inc is currently moderately overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.