As of July 16, 2025, Box Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $10.74 to $42.73 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $16.18 | -49.6% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $10.74 | -66.5% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $13.39 | -58.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $42.73 | +33.2% |
| Earnings Power Value | $11.05 | -65.5% |
Is Box Inc (BOX) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $32.07, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Box Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.72 | 0.83 |
| Cost of equity | 7.2% | 9.5% |
| Cost of debt | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax rate | 26.2% | 27.0% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| After-tax WACC | 6.7% | 8.8% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $11 | $1,519M | 85.3% |
| 10-Year Growth | $16 | $2,306M | 75.7% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $16 | $2,333M | 90.4% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $20 | $2,861M | 80.4% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $119M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.8% - 6.7% |
| Enterprise Value | $1,357M - $1,773M |
| Net Debt | $(36)M |
| Equity Value | $1,393M - $1,809M |
| Outstanding Shares | 145M |
| Fair Value | $10 - $12 |
| Selected Fair Value | $11.05 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $4644M |
| Enterprise Value | $4608M |
| Trailing P/E | 19.71 |
| Forward P/E | 63.11 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 17.60 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 31.97% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.14 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $4.85 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $2.69 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $2.68 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $6.41 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $1.11 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $17.73 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Box Inc's intrinsic value is $17.73, which is approximately 44.7% below the current market price of $32.07.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Box Inc is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.