As of April 4, 2026, Box Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $20.95 per share. With the current market price at $24.02, this represents a potential upside of -12.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $17.95 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $20.95 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -25.3% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -12.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.0% - 8.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1177 million in 01-2026 to $2111 million by 01-2036, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.0%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2026 | 1177 | 8% |
| 01-2027 | 1240 | 5% |
| 01-2028 | 1295 | 4% |
| 01-2029 | 1362 | 5% |
| 01-2030 | 1428 | 5% |
| 01-2031 | 1518 | 6% |
| 01-2032 | 1654 | 9% |
| 01-2033 | 1690 | 2% |
| 01-2034 | 1808 | 7% |
| 01-2035 | 1947 | 8% |
| 01-2036 | 2111 | 8% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 10% in 01-2026 to 10% by 01-2036, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2026 | 115 | 10% |
| 01-2027 | 85 | 7% |
| 01-2028 | 98 | 8% |
| 01-2029 | 113 | 8% |
| 01-2030 | 128 | 9% |
| 01-2031 | 145 | 10% |
| 01-2032 | 160 | 10% |
| 01-2033 | 165 | 10% |
| 01-2034 | 179 | 10% |
| 01-2035 | 195 | 10% |
| 01-2036 | 214 | 10% |
with a 5-year average of $23 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 01-2027 | 27 |
| 01-2028 | 29 |
| 01-2029 | 31 |
| 01-2030 | 31 |
| 01-2031 | 30 |
| 01-2032 | 32 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 99 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 129 | 32 | 27 | 12 | 58 |
| 2028 | 148 | 36 | 28 | 15 | 69 |
| 2029 | 170 | 42 | 30 | 20 | 78 |
| 2030 | 189 | 47 | 31 | 17 | 94 |
| 2031 | 210 | 54 | 33 | 25 | 99 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 17.95 | -25.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 20.95 | -12.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 13.28 | -44.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 16.67 | -30.6% |
Is Box Inc (BOX) a buy or a sell? Box Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Box Inc (BOX) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -12.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $24.02.