As of June 12, 2025, Boot Barn Holdings Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $60.50 to $248.83 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $248.83 | +53.3% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $198.22 | +22.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $182.33 | +12.4% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $137.09 | -15.5% |
| Earnings Power Value | $60.50 | -62.7% |
Is Boot Barn Holdings Inc (BOOT) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $162.27, the stock appears to be moderately undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Boot Barn Holdings Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| Cost of equity | 5.6% | 7.2% |
| Cost of debt | 4.5% | 6.9% |
| Tax rate | 24.2% | 24.5% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0 | 0 |
| After-tax WACC | 5.6% | 7.2% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $198 | $6,008M | 81.7% |
| 10-Year Growth | $249 | $7,556M | 69.2% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $117 | $3,534M | 68.8% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $160 | $4,831M | 51.8% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $113M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.2% - 5.6% |
| Enterprise Value | $1,566M - $2,025M |
| Net Debt | $(55)M |
| Equity Value | $1,621M - $2,080M |
| Outstanding Shares | 31M |
| Fair Value | $53 - $68 |
| Selected Fair Value | $60.50 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $4964M |
| Enterprise Value | $4908M |
| Trailing P/E | 27.42 |
| Forward P/E | 23.72 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 5.65 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 125.85% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.00 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $74.65 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $49.56 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $36.47 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $20.56 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $6.05 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $187.29 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Boot Barn Holdings Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $187.29, which is approximately 15.4% above the current market price of $162.27.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Boot Barn Holdings Inc is currently moderately undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.