As of May 23, 2025, Henry Boot PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $254.06 per share. With the current market price at $225.00, this represents a potential upside of 12.9%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $185.16 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $254.06 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -17.7% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 12.9% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.3% - 9.4% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $359 million in 12-2023 to $497 million by 12-2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.3%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 359 | 5% |
| 12-2024 | 356 | -1% |
| 12-2025 | 365 | 3% |
| 12-2026 | 397 | 9% |
| 12-2027 | 415 | 5% |
| 12-2028 | 425 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 433 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 442 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 465 | 5% |
| 12-2032 | 487 | 5% |
| 12-2033 | 497 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 8% in 12-2023 to 8% by 12-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 29 | 8% |
| 12-2024 | 30 | 8% |
| 12-2025 | 30 | 8% |
| 12-2026 | 33 | 8% |
| 12-2027 | 35 | 8% |
| 12-2028 | 35 | 8% |
| 12-2029 | 36 | 8% |
| 12-2030 | 37 | 8% |
| 12-2031 | 39 | 8% |
| 12-2032 | 41 | 8% |
| 12-2033 | 41 | 8% |
with a 5-year average of $2 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 2 |
| 12-2025 | 2 |
| 12-2026 | 2 |
| 12-2027 | 3 |
| 12-2028 | 2 |
| 12-2029 | 2 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 89 |
| Days Inventory | 428 |
| Days Payables | 98 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2024 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 8 |
| 2025 | 43 | 7 | 2 | (8) | 40 |
| 2026 | 46 | 8 | 2 | 34 | 2 |
| 2027 | 49 | 8 | 2 | 20 | 18 |
| 2028 | 49 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 33 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 185.16 | -17.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 254.06 | 12.9% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 200.20 | -11.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 219.82 | -2.3% |
Is Henry Boot PLC (BOOT.L) a buy or a sell? Henry Boot PLC is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Henry Boot PLC (BOOT.L) appears to be moderately undervalued with upside potential of 12.9%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a buy at the current market price of $225.00.