As of May 22, 2025, Boston Omaha Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $25.76, this represents a potential upside of -584.3%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -238.7% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -584.3% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.1% - 7.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $46 million in 12-2020 to $1078 million by 12-2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 37.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 46 | 11% |
| 12-2021 | 56 | 23% |
| 12-2022 | 60 | 7% |
| 12-2023 | 101 | 67% |
| 12-2024 | 156 | 54% |
| 12-2025 | 228 | 47% |
| 12-2026 | 327 | 43% |
| 12-2027 | 460 | 41% |
| 12-2028 | 629 | 37% |
| 12-2029 | 835 | 33% |
| 12-2030 | 1078 | 29% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -5% in 12-2020 to 1% by 12-2030, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | (2) | -5% |
| 12-2021 | (2) | -3% |
| 12-2022 | (1) | -2% |
| 12-2023 | (1) | -1% |
| 12-2024 | (1) | 0% |
| 12-2025 | 1 | 0% |
| 12-2026 | 2 | 0% |
| 12-2027 | 3 | 1% |
| 12-2028 | 5 | 1% |
| 12-2029 | 8 | 1% |
| 12-2030 | 11 | 1% |
with a 5-year average of $3 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 17% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 5 |
| 12-2022 | 7 |
| 12-2023 | 10 |
| 12-2024 | 14 |
| 12-2025 | 20 |
| 12-2026 | 30 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 50 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M/2021 | (0) | (0) | 2 | 1 | (3) |
| 2022 | 2 | (0) | 10 | (1) | (7) |
| 2023 | 2 | (0) | 17 | 5 | (19) |
| 2024 | 5 | (0) | 26 | 7 | (29) |
| 2025 | 9 | 0 | 39 | 7 | (38) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -238.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -584.3% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 1.28 | -95.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Boston Omaha Corp (BOMN) a buy or a sell? Boston Omaha Corp is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Boston Omaha Corp (BOMN) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -584.3%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $25.76.