What is BNZL.L's Intrinsic value?

Bunzl plc (BNZL.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of December 15, 2025, Bunzl plc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $1382.67 to $5828.77 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $2136.67 -0.6%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $2014.23 -6.3%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $1382.67 -35.7%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $1394.36 -35.1%
Earnings Power Value $5828.77 +171.1%

Is Bunzl plc (BNZL.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $2150.00, the stock appears to be fairly valued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Bunzl plc's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.0% 4.5%
Equity market risk premium 6.0% 7.0%
Adjusted beta 1 1.17
Cost of equity 10.0% 13.1%
Cost of debt 4.0% 5.5%
Tax rate 23.9% 24.9%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.53 0.53
After-tax WACC 7.6% 10.0%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 8.8% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $11,776 (FY12-2024) to $15,252 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 4% to 4%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 0% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $2,014 $8,769M 73.5%
10-Year Growth $2,137 $9,166M 53.1%
5-Year EBITDA $1,480 $7,039M 66.9%
10-Year EBITDA $1,724 $7,831M 45.1%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 48.4%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 11.6%
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0%
  • Fair value: $1382.67 (-35.7% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 13.1% (Low) to 10.0% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0% (Low) to 3.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $861 to $1,928
  • Selected fair value: $1394.36 (-35.1% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $1,818M
Discount Rate (WACC) 10.0% - 7.6%
Enterprise Value $18,194M - $24,047M
Net Debt $2,248M
Equity Value $15,947M - $21,799M
Outstanding Shares 3M
Fair Value $4,925 - $6,733
Selected Fair Value $5828.77

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $6961M
Enterprise Value $9209M
Trailing P/E 14.40
Forward P/E 13.61
Trailing EV/EBITDA 7.50
Current Dividend Yield 336.57%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 7.45%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.53

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $641.00
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $503.56
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $276.53
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $209.15
Earnings Power Value 10% $582.88
Weighted Average 100% $2213.12

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Bunzl plc's intrinsic value is $2213.12, which is approximately 2.9% above the current market price of $2150.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (4% to 4% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Historical dividend growth of 7.45%

Given these factors, we believe Bunzl plc is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.