As of May 22, 2025, Bionano Genomics Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $3.62, this represents a potential upside of -65298.2%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -30381.9% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -65298.2% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.9% - 27.6% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $31 million in 12-2024 to $741 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 37.4%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 31 | 15% |
| 12-2025 | 29 | -5% |
| 12-2026 | 35 | 20% |
| 12-2027 | 112 | 219% |
| 12-2028 | 161 | 43% |
| 12-2029 | 221 | 38% |
| 12-2030 | 296 | 34% |
| 12-2031 | 384 | 30% |
| 12-2032 | 489 | 27% |
| 12-2033 | 604 | 23% |
| 12-2034 | 741 | 23% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -364% in 12-2024 to -338% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | (112) | -364% |
| 12-2025 | (105) | -359% |
| 12-2026 | (125) | -354% |
| 12-2027 | (393) | -350% |
| 12-2028 | (555) | -345% |
| 12-2029 | (754) | -341% |
| 12-2030 | (1,007) | -341% |
| 12-2031 | (1,305) | -340% |
| 12-2032 | (1,659) | -339% |
| 12-2033 | (2,042) | -338% |
| 12-2034 | (2,502) | -338% |
with a 5-year average of $1 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 4% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 1 |
| 12-2026 | 1 |
| 12-2027 | 2 |
| 12-2028 | 2 |
| 12-2029 | 4 |
| 12-2030 | 6 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 81 |
| Days Inventory | 315 |
| Days Payables | 145 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | (106) | (0) | 1 | 10 | (117) |
| 2026 | (126) | (0) | 1 | (1) | (126) |
| 2027 | (399) | (0) | 4 | 34 | (437) |
| 2028 | (563) | (0) | 6 | 30 | (599) |
| 2029 | (766) | (1) | 8 | 22 | (795) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -30381.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -65298.2% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Bionano Genomics Inc (BNGO) a buy or a sell? Bionano Genomics Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Bionano Genomics Inc (BNGO) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -65298.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $3.62.