As of April 4, 2026, Barnes & Noble Education Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $28.34 per share. With the current market price at $9.00, this represents a potential upside of 214.9%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $16.29 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $28.34 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 81.0% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 214.9% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.7% - 11.3% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1610 million in 05-2025 to $2687 million by 05-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.3%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 05-2025 | 1610 | 3% |
| 05-2026 | 1697 | 5% |
| 05-2027 | 1753 | 3% |
| 05-2028 | 1885 | 7% |
| 05-2029 | 1922 | 2% |
| 05-2030 | 2030 | 6% |
| 05-2031 | 2133 | 5% |
| 05-2032 | 2278 | 7% |
| 05-2033 | 2424 | 6% |
| 05-2034 | 2602 | 7% |
| 05-2035 | 2687 | 3% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -4% in 05-2025 to 4% by 05-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 05-2025 | (66) | -4% |
| 05-2026 | (35) | -2% |
| 05-2027 | (11) | -1% |
| 05-2028 | 14 | 1% |
| 05-2029 | 41 | 2% |
| 05-2030 | 71 | 4% |
| 05-2031 | 75 | 4% |
| 05-2032 | 80 | 4% |
| 05-2033 | 85 | 4% |
| 05-2034 | 91 | 4% |
| 05-2035 | 94 | 4% |
with a 5-year average of $23 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 05-2026 | 22 |
| 05-2027 | 21 |
| 05-2028 | 21 |
| 05-2029 | 24 |
| 05-2030 | 28 |
| 05-2031 | 29 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 16 |
| Days Inventory | 105 |
| Days Payables | 72 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4M/2026 | 3 | (1) | 9 | (13) | 8 |
| 2027 | 33 | (1) | 26 | 11 | (3) |
| 2028 | 63 | 1 | 28 | 24 | 9 |
| 2029 | 95 | 3 | 29 | (9) | 72 |
| 2030 | 133 | 5 | 31 | 12 | 84 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 16.29 | 81.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 28.34 | 214.9% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 18.08 | 100.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 28.30 | 214.4% |
Is Barnes & Noble Education Inc (BNED) a buy or a sell? Barnes & Noble Education Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Barnes & Noble Education Inc (BNED) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 214.9%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $9.00.