What is BN.PA's Intrinsic value?

Danone SA (BN.PA) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 14, 2025, Danone SA's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $54.36 to $71.15 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $71.15 -2.0%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $64.97 -10.5%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $56.01 -22.9%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $58.01 -20.1%
Earnings Power Value $54.36 -25.1%

Is Danone SA (BN.PA) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $72.62, the stock appears to be moderately overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Danone SA's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.0% 3.5%
Equity market risk premium 5.8% 6.8%
Adjusted beta 0.53 0.58
Cost of equity 6.1% 7.9%
Cost of debt 4.0% 4.5%
Tax rate 30.8% 35.6%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.29 0.29
After-tax WACC 5.4% 6.8%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 6.1% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $27,376 (FY12-2024) to $38,901 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 8% to 8%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 4% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $65 $56,993M 82.2%
10-Year Growth $71 $61,205M 68.2%
5-Year EBITDA $40 $39,889M 74.6%
10-Year EBITDA $49 $45,841M 57.5%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 66.7%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 7.0%
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0%
  • Fair value: $56.01 (-22.9% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 7.9% (Low) to 6.1% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0% (Low) to 3.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $30 to $86
  • Selected fair value: $58.01 (-20.1% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $2,985M
Discount Rate (WACC) 6.8% - 5.4%
Enterprise Value $43,822M - $55,713M
Net Debt $12,745M
Equity Value $31,077M - $42,968M
Outstanding Shares 681M
Fair Value $46 - $63
Selected Fair Value $54.36

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $49459M
Enterprise Value $62204M
Trailing P/E 24.47
Forward P/E 22.77
Trailing EV/EBITDA 8.40
Current Dividend Yield 272.55%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) -0.28%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.29

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $21.35
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $16.24
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $11.20
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $8.70
Earnings Power Value 10% $5.44
Weighted Average 100% $62.93

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Danone SA's weighted average intrinsic value is $62.93, which is approximately 13.3% below the current market price of $72.62.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (8% to 8% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.29)

Given these factors, we believe Danone SA is currently moderately overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.