What is BMRN's DCF valuation?

Biomarin Pharmaceutical Inc (BMRN) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 20, 2026, Biomarin Pharmaceutical Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $50.39 per share. With the current market price at $49.81, this represents a potential upside of 1.2%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $40.13
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $50.39
Potential Upside (5-year) -19.4%
Potential Upside (10-year) 1.2%
Discount Rate (WACC) 7.9% - 11.2%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Revenue is projected to grow from $3221 million in 12-2025 to $6990 million by 12-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.1%.

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
12-2025 3221 13%
12-2026 3312 3%
12-2027 3687 11%
12-2028 3990 8%
12-2029 4364 9%
12-2030 4763 9%
12-2031 5167 8%
12-2032 5643 9%
12-2033 6103 8%
12-2034 6429 5%
12-2035 6990 9%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from 11% in 12-2025 to 18% by 12-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
12-2025 349 11%
12-2026 468 14%
12-2027 550 15%
12-2028 625 16%
12-2029 715 16%
12-2030 812 17%
12-2031 888 17%
12-2032 977 17%
12-2033 1064 17%
12-2034 1129 18%
12-2035 1236 18%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

with a 5-year average of $113 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 5% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
12-2026 121
12-2027 130
12-2028 147
12-2029 170
12-2030 193
12-2031 211

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 94
Days Inventory 776
Days Payables 0

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
9M/2026 437 44 119 (82) 355
2027 676 69 177 173 257
2028 771 78 192 153 349
2029 887 89 210 123 465
2030 1012 101 229 162 520

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 7.9% - 11.2%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 13.5x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 40.13 -19.4%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 50.39 1.2%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 52.68 5.8%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 62.07 24.6%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $6,925M
  • 10-Year Model: $8,898M

Investment Conclusion

Is Biomarin Pharmaceutical Inc (BMRN) a buy or a sell? Biomarin Pharmaceutical Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Biomarin Pharmaceutical Inc (BMRN) appears to be slightly undervalued with upside potential of 1.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Expanding profit margins (from 11% to 18%)
  • Steady revenue growth (8.1% CAGR)

Investors should consider a hold with potential to accumulate at the current market price of $49.81.