As of May 23, 2025, Blancco Technology Group PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $43.41 per share. With the current market price at $225.00, this represents a potential upside of -80.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $21.66 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $43.41 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -90.4% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -80.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.8% - 8.7% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $40 million in 06-2022 to $93 million by 06-2032, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.8%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 06-2022 | 40 | 9% |
| 06-2023 | 47 | 17% |
| 06-2024 | 50 | 7% |
| 06-2025 | 54 | 8% |
| 06-2026 | 60 | 11% |
| 06-2027 | 65 | 8% |
| 06-2028 | 70 | 9% |
| 06-2029 | 76 | 8% |
| 06-2030 | 82 | 8% |
| 06-2031 | 88 | 7% |
| 06-2032 | 93 | 6% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 5% in 06-2022 to 4% by 06-2032, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 06-2022 | 2 | 5% |
| 06-2023 | 2 | 3% |
| 06-2024 | 2 | 4% |
| 06-2025 | 2 | 4% |
| 06-2026 | 2 | 4% |
| 06-2027 | 3 | 4% |
| 06-2028 | 3 | 4% |
| 06-2029 | 3 | 4% |
| 06-2030 | 3 | 4% |
| 06-2031 | 3 | 4% |
| 06-2032 | 4 | 4% |
with a 5-year average of $4 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 13% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 06-2023 | 5 |
| 06-2024 | 5 |
| 06-2025 | 6 |
| 06-2026 | 6 |
| 06-2027 | 7 |
| 06-2028 | 8 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 60 |
| Days Inventory | 32 |
| Days Payables | 135 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2023 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 1 | (0) |
| 2026 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0 |
| 2027 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 1 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 21.66 | -90.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 43.41 | -80.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 146.54 | -34.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 158.30 | -29.6% |
Is Blancco Technology Group PLC (BLTG.L) a buy or a sell? Blancco Technology Group PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Blancco Technology Group PLC (BLTG.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -80.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $225.00.