What is BLS.SW's Intrinsic value?

Blackstone Resources AG (BLS.SW) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 22, 2025, Blackstone Resources AG's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $2.35 to $6.25 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $6.25 +4709.1%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $5.71 +4290.7%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $2.35 +1710.1%

Is Blackstone Resources AG (BLS.SW) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $0.13, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Blackstone Resources AG's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 1.0% 1.5%
Equity market risk premium 5.1% 6.1%
Adjusted beta 1.71 2.18
Cost of equity 9.7% 15.3%
Cost of debt 4.0% 7.0%
Tax rate 0.6% 1.0%
Debt/Equity ratio 2.32 2.32
After-tax WACC 5.7% 9.4%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 7.6% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $0 (FY12-2020) to $0 (FY12-2030)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 181647% to 2232%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 802% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $6 $278M 73.2%
10-Year Growth $6 $303M 53.3%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 12.5%
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.5%
  • Fair value: $2.35 (1710.1% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 15.3% (Low) to 9.7% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.0% (Low) to 1.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $(0) to $(1)
  • Selected fair value: $-0.78 (-698.0% from current price)

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $6M
Enterprise Value $22M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.34
Trailing EV/EBITDA 0.00
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 2.32

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 40% $1.88
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 33% $1.43
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 27% $0.47
Weighted Average 100% $5.03

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Blackstone Resources AG's weighted average intrinsic value is $5.03, which is approximately 3769.9% above the current market price of $0.13.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (181647% to 2232% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Blackstone Resources AG is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.