As of April 4, 2026, Blackline Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $6.29 per share. With the current market price at $36.29, this represents a potential upside of -82.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $6.29 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -103.0% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -82.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.5% - 8.7% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $700 million in 12-2025 to $1562 million by 12-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.4%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 700 | 7% |
| 12-2026 | 739 | 6% |
| 12-2027 | 809 | 9% |
| 12-2028 | 892 | 10% |
| 12-2029 | 937 | 5% |
| 12-2030 | 1023 | 9% |
| 12-2031 | 1146 | 12% |
| 12-2032 | 1247 | 9% |
| 12-2033 | 1350 | 8% |
| 12-2034 | 1464 | 8% |
| 12-2035 | 1562 | 7% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 4% in 12-2025 to 10% by 12-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 27 | 4% |
| 12-2026 | 43 | 6% |
| 12-2027 | 54 | 7% |
| 12-2028 | 66 | 7% |
| 12-2029 | 77 | 8% |
| 12-2030 | 91 | 9% |
| 12-2031 | 104 | 9% |
| 12-2032 | 115 | 9% |
| 12-2033 | 126 | 9% |
| 12-2034 | 139 | 9% |
| 12-2035 | 150 | 10% |
with a 5-year average of $29 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 5% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2026 | 31 |
| 12-2027 | 33 |
| 12-2028 | 37 |
| 12-2029 | 41 |
| 12-2030 | 44 |
| 12-2031 | 48 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 106 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 24 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 67 | 17 | 37 | 1 | 12 |
| 2027 | 82 | 21 | 40 | 20 | 1 |
| 2028 | 101 | 26 | 45 | 28 | 1 |
| 2029 | 118 | 31 | 47 | 10 | 30 |
| 2030 | 139 | 36 | 51 | 25 | 26 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -103.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 6.29 | -82.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 30.73 | -15.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 40.92 | 12.8% |
Is Blackline Inc (BL) a buy or a sell? Blackline Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Blackline Inc (BL) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -82.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $36.29.