As of May 23, 2025, Berkeley Group Holdings PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $2444.40 to $5521.55 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $2444.40 | -41.2% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $3179.46 | -23.5% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $4788.57 | +15.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $4099.02 | -1.4% |
| Earnings Power Value | $5521.55 | +32.9% |
Is Berkeley Group Holdings PLC (BKG.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $4156.00, the stock appears to be moderately overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Berkeley Group Holdings PLC's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 6.0% | 7.0% |
| Adjusted beta | 1.05 | 1.44 |
| Cost of equity | 10.3% | 15.1% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 4.6% |
| Tax rate | 18.5% | 20.3% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| After-tax WACC | 9.3% | 13.5% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $3,179 | $2,657M | 78.5% |
| 10-Year Growth | $2,444 | $1,934M | 44.1% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $3,999 | $3,463M | 83.5% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $3,715 | $3,184M | 66.1% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $547M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 13.5% - 9.3% |
| Enterprise Value | $4,056M - $5,866M |
| Net Debt | $(471)M |
| Equity Value | $4,526M - $6,337M |
| Outstanding Shares | 1M |
| Fair Value | $4,601 - $6,442 |
| Selected Fair Value | $5521.55 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $4088M |
| Enterprise Value | $3617M |
| Trailing P/E | 10.71 |
| Forward P/E | 8.40 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 7.95 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 610.87% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | -10.04% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.16 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $733.32 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $794.86 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $957.71 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $614.85 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $552.15 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $3652.90 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Berkeley Group Holdings PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $3652.90, which is approximately 12.1% below the current market price of $4156.00.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC is currently moderately overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.