What is BJKAS.IS's DCF valuation?

Besiktas Futbol Yatirimlari Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (BJKAS.IS) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 7, 2025, Besiktas Futbol Yatirimlari Sanayi ve Ticaret AS has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $3.84, this represents a potential upside of -437.8%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $0.00
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $0.00
Potential Upside (5-year) -439.6%
Potential Upside (10-year) -437.8%
Discount Rate (WACC) 14.2% - 21.6%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Revenue is projected to grow from $498 million in 05-2020 to $1751 million by 05-2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 13.4%.

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
05-2020 498 20%
05-2021 439 -12%
05-2022 536 22%
05-2023 661 23%
05-2024 820 24%
05-2025 940 15%
05-2026 1089 16%
05-2027 1240 14%
05-2028 1408 14%
05-2029 1580 12%
05-2030 1751 11%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from -96% in 05-2020 to -59% by 05-2030, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
05-2020 (478) -96%
05-2021 (379) -86%
05-2022 (430) -80%
05-2023 (492) -75%
05-2024 (566) -69%
05-2025 (600) -64%
05-2026 (684) -63%
05-2027 (767) -62%
05-2028 (857) -61%
05-2029 (947) -60%
05-2030 (1,033) -59%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

with a 5-year average of $66 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 11% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
05-2021 65
05-2022 70
05-2023 68
05-2024 70
05-2025 77
05-2026 92

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 48
Days Inventory 8
Days Payables 138

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
3M/2021 (27) (3) 12 23 (60)
2022 (109) (12) 61 (31) (127)
2023 (113) (14) 75 (41) (133)
2024 (108) (16) 93 (14) (171)
2025 (77) (17) 107 (21) (146)

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 14.2% - 21.6%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 3.4x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -439.6%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -437.8%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $(1,016)M
  • 10-Year Model: $(1,000)M

Investment Conclusion

Is Besiktas Futbol Yatirimlari Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (BJKAS.IS) a buy or a sell? Besiktas Futbol Yatirimlari Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Besiktas Futbol Yatirimlari Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (BJKAS.IS) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -437.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Expanding profit margins (from -96% to -59%)
  • Steady revenue growth (13.4% CAGR)
  • Strong free cash flow generation

Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $3.84.