What is BIPC's Intrinsic value?

Brookfield Infrastructure Corp (BIPC) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 6, 2025, Brookfield Infrastructure Corp's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $28.76 to $204.80 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $204.80 +400.4%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $161.52 +294.6%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $28.76 -29.7%
Earnings Power Value $50.89 +24.3%

Is Brookfield Infrastructure Corp (BIPC) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $40.93, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Brookfield Infrastructure Corp's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.9% 4.4%
Equity market risk premium 4.6% 5.6%
Adjusted beta 0.66 0.74
Cost of equity 6.9% 9.0%
Cost of debt 7.5% 10.8%
Tax rate 26.2% 27.0%
Debt/Equity ratio 2.35 2.35
After-tax WACC 5.9% 8.2%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 7.1% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $3,666 (FY12-2024) to $6,050 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 2% to 9%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 29% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $162 $33,211M 75.1%
10-Year Growth $205 $38,926M 57.5%
5-Year EBITDA $125 $28,426M 70.9%
10-Year EBITDA $173 $34,761M 52.4%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 7.9%
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.5%
  • Fair value: $28.76 (-29.7% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 9.0% (Low) to 6.9% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.0% (Low) to 1.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $(15) to $(29)
  • Selected fair value: $-21.58 (-152.7% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $1,282M
Discount Rate (WACC) 8.2% - 5.9%
Enterprise Value $15,579M - $21,627M
Net Debt $11,884M
Equity Value $3,695M - $9,743M
Outstanding Shares 132M
Fair Value $28 - $74
Selected Fair Value $50.89

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $5404M
Enterprise Value $17288M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 16.45
Trailing EV/EBITDA 7.50
Current Dividend Yield 468.75%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 2.35

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 35% $61.44
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 29% $40.38
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 24% $5.75
Earnings Power Value 12% $5.09
Weighted Average 100% $132.54

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Brookfield Infrastructure Corp's weighted average intrinsic value is $132.54, which is approximately 223.8% above the current market price of $40.93.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (2% to 9% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Brookfield Infrastructure Corp is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.