As of May 24, 2025, Binero Group AB (publ) has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $6.05 per share. With the current market price at $2.26, this represents a potential upside of 167.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $3.56 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $6.05 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 57.5% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 167.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.2% - 8.1% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $416 million in 12-2024 to $1316 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 12.2%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 416 | 352% |
| 12-2025 | 454 | 9% |
| 12-2026 | 499 | 10% |
| 12-2027 | 601 | 20% |
| 12-2028 | 689 | 15% |
| 12-2029 | 782 | 13% |
| 12-2030 | 899 | 15% |
| 12-2031 | 991 | 10% |
| 12-2032 | 1087 | 10% |
| 12-2033 | 1209 | 11% |
| 12-2034 | 1316 | 9% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 3% in 12-2024 to 4% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 13 | 3% |
| 12-2025 | 17 | 4% |
| 12-2026 | 19 | 4% |
| 12-2027 | 23 | 4% |
| 12-2028 | 26 | 4% |
| 12-2029 | 30 | 4% |
| 12-2030 | 34 | 4% |
| 12-2031 | 38 | 4% |
| 12-2032 | 42 | 4% |
| 12-2033 | 46 | 4% |
| 12-2034 | 50 | 4% |
with a 5-year average of $5 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 4% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 8 |
| 12-2026 | 12 |
| 12-2027 | 17 |
| 12-2028 | 22 |
| 12-2029 | 25 |
| 12-2030 | 28 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 44 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 22 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 28 | 0 | 19 | 30 | (21) |
| 2026 | 34 | 0 | 20 | (1) | 14 |
| 2027 | 43 | 0 | 25 | (2) | 20 |
| 2028 | 51 | 0 | 28 | 14 | 8 |
| 2029 | 58 | 0 | 32 | 4 | 22 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 3.56 | 57.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 6.05 | 167.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 2.76 | 22.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 4.31 | 90.8% |
Is Binero Group AB (publ) (BINERO.ST) a buy or a sell? Binero Group AB (publ) is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Binero Group AB (publ) (BINERO.ST) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 167.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $2.26.