What is BIDS.L's DCF valuation?

Bidstack Group PLC (BIDS.L) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 23, 2025, Bidstack Group PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.23, this represents a potential upside of -3095496.9%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $0.00
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $0.00
Potential Upside (5-year) -305697.7%
Potential Upside (10-year) -3095496.9%
Discount Rate (WACC) 6.4% - 8.1%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Revenue is projected to grow from $5 million in 12-2022 to $3784 million by 12-2032, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 94.0%.

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
12-2022 5 101%
12-2023 16 195%
12-2024 34 118%
12-2025 75 122%
12-2026 153 103%
12-2027 292 92%
12-2028 536 84%
12-2029 932 74%
12-2030 1543 66%
12-2031 2470 60%
12-2032 3784 53%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from -146% in 12-2022 to -145% by 12-2032, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
12-2022 (8) -146%
12-2023 (23) -151%
12-2024 (51) -150%
12-2025 (112) -149%
12-2026 (225) -147%
12-2027 (428) -146%
12-2028 (784) -146%
12-2029 (1,360) -146%
12-2030 (2,249) -146%
12-2031 (3,597) -146%
12-2032 (5,502) -145%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

with a 5-year average of $0 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 9% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
12-2023 0
12-2024 1
12-2025 2
12-2026 5
12-2027 10
12-2028 20

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 304
Days Inventory 0
Days Payables 238

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
6M/2023 (13) (1) 1 3 (15)
2024 (54) (5) 3 13 (66)
2025 (120) (10) 7 36 (152)
2026 (241) (21) 14 52 (285)
2027 (457) (40) 27 108 (552)

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 6.4% - 8.1%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 4.2x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -305697.7%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -3095496.9%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $(8,549)M
  • 10-Year Model: $(86,575)M

Investment Conclusion

Is Bidstack Group PLC (BIDS.L) a buy or a sell? Bidstack Group PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Bidstack Group PLC (BIDS.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -3095496.9%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Expanding profit margins (from -146% to -145%)
  • Steady revenue growth (94.0% CAGR)
  • Strong free cash flow generation

Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.23.