As of May 22, 2025, BHG Group AB has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $8.25 per share. With the current market price at $26.46, this represents a potential upside of -68.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $8.25 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -113.4% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -68.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.4% - 8.7% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $9962 million in 12-2024 to $14871 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 9962 | 16% |
| 12-2025 | 10279 | 3% |
| 12-2026 | 10898 | 6% |
| 12-2027 | 11444 | 5% |
| 12-2028 | 11975 | 5% |
| 12-2029 | 12330 | 3% |
| 12-2030 | 13132 | 7% |
| 12-2031 | 13395 | 2% |
| 12-2032 | 14212 | 6% |
| 12-2033 | 14496 | 2% |
| 12-2034 | 14871 | 3% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -6% in 12-2024 to 1% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | (640) | -6% |
| 12-2025 | (390) | -4% |
| 12-2026 | (288) | -3% |
| 12-2027 | (173) | -2% |
| 12-2028 | (48) | 0% |
| 12-2029 | 84 | 1% |
| 12-2030 | 90 | 1% |
| 12-2031 | 91 | 1% |
| 12-2032 | 97 | 1% |
| 12-2033 | 99 | 1% |
| 12-2034 | 101 | 1% |
with a 5-year average of $161 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 171 |
| 12-2026 | 163 |
| 12-2027 | 155 |
| 12-2028 | 152 |
| 12-2029 | 159 |
| 12-2030 | 167 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 11 |
| Days Inventory | 65 |
| Days Payables | 38 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | (109) | (84) | 108 | 276 | (409) |
| 2026 | (10) | (82) | 152 | (163) | 82 |
| 2027 | 140 | (49) | 160 | 40 | (11) |
| 2028 | 306 | (14) | 167 | 89 | 63 |
| 2029 | 490 | 24 | 172 | (32) | 326 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -113.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 8.25 | -68.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 3.42 | -87.1% |
Is BHG Group AB (BHG.ST) a buy or a sell? BHG Group AB is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, BHG Group AB (BHG.ST) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -68.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $26.46.