As of April 19, 2026, B&G Foods Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $24.53 per share. With the current market price at $5.43, this represents a potential upside of 351.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $20.73 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $24.53 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 281.7% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 351.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.4% - 9.1% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1829 million in 01-2026 to $2386 million by 01-2036, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2026 | 1829 | 5% |
| 01-2027 | 1820 | 0% |
| 01-2028 | 1856 | 2% |
| 01-2029 | 1894 | 2% |
| 01-2030 | 1946 | 3% |
| 01-2031 | 2031 | 4% |
| 01-2032 | 2073 | 2% |
| 01-2033 | 2114 | 2% |
| 01-2034 | 2214 | 5% |
| 01-2035 | 2258 | 2% |
| 01-2036 | 2386 | 6% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -2% in 01-2026 to 4% by 01-2036, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2026 | (44) | -2% |
| 01-2027 | (14) | -1% |
| 01-2028 | 7 | 0% |
| 01-2029 | 29 | 2% |
| 01-2030 | 51 | 3% |
| 01-2031 | 75 | 4% |
| 01-2032 | 77 | 4% |
| 01-2033 | 79 | 4% |
| 01-2034 | 82 | 4% |
| 01-2035 | 84 | 4% |
| 01-2036 | 89 | 4% |
with a 5-year average of $30 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 01-2027 | 27 |
| 01-2028 | 28 |
| 01-2029 | 28 |
| 01-2030 | 29 |
| 01-2031 | 29 |
| 01-2032 | 29 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 29 |
| Days Inventory | 120 |
| Days Payables | 28 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 159 | (5) | 27 | 42 | 95 |
| 2028 | 192 | 2 | 28 | (3) | 164 |
| 2029 | 224 | 9 | 28 | (10) | 197 |
| 2030 | 258 | 16 | 29 | 17 | 196 |
| 2031 | 298 | 24 | 30 | 12 | 231 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 20.73 | 281.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 24.53 | 351.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 3.01 | -44.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 10.49 | 93.1% |
Is B&G Foods Inc (BGS) a buy or a sell? B&G Foods Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, B&G Foods Inc (BGS) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 351.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $5.43.