As of April 4, 2026, Big 5 Sporting Goods Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $1.44, this represents a potential upside of -881.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -1020.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -881.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.4% - 9.5% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $795 million in 12-2024 to $1030 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 795 | 10% |
| 12-2025 | 729 | -8% |
| 12-2026 | 744 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 800 | 8% |
| 12-2028 | 835 | 4% |
| 12-2029 | 862 | 3% |
| 12-2030 | 883 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 901 | 2% |
| 12-2032 | 944 | 5% |
| 12-2033 | 1007 | 7% |
| 12-2034 | 1030 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -9% in 12-2024 to 0% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | (69) | -9% |
| 12-2025 | (32) | -4% |
| 12-2026 | (24) | -3% |
| 12-2027 | (18) | -2% |
| 12-2028 | (10) | -1% |
| 12-2029 | (2) | 0% |
| 12-2030 | (2) | 0% |
| 12-2031 | (2) | 0% |
| 12-2032 | (2) | 0% |
| 12-2033 | (3) | 0% |
| 12-2034 | (3) | 0% |
with a 5-year average of $11 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 11 |
| 12-2026 | 10 |
| 12-2027 | 9 |
| 12-2028 | 9 |
| 12-2029 | 9 |
| 12-2030 | 9 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 4 |
| Days Inventory | 169 |
| Days Payables | 39 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | (15) | (5) | 4 | (6) | (8) |
| 2026 | (21) | (8) | 8 | (1) | (21) |
| 2027 | (13) | (6) | 9 | 8 | (25) |
| 2028 | (3) | (3) | 9 | 6 | (16) |
| 2029 | 7 | (1) | 10 | 2 | (4) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -1020.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -881.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Big 5 Sporting Goods Corp (BGFV) a buy or a sell? Big 5 Sporting Goods Corp is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Big 5 Sporting Goods Corp (BGFV) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -881.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $1.44.