As of June 12, 2025, Baillie Gifford Japan Trust PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $110.15 per share. With the current market price at $777.00, this represents a potential upside of -85.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $115.57 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $110.15 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -85.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -85.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.8% - 10.2% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $72 million in 08-2024 to $11 million by 08-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately -17.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 08-2024 | 72 | 310% |
| 08-2025 | 8 | -88% |
| 08-2026 | 9 | 3% |
| 08-2027 | 9 | 5% |
| 08-2028 | 9 | 2% |
| 08-2029 | 10 | 3% |
| 08-2030 | 10 | 2% |
| 08-2031 | 10 | 3% |
| 08-2032 | 10 | 2% |
| 08-2033 | 11 | 3% |
| 08-2034 | 11 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 88% in 08-2024 to 91% by 08-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 08-2024 | 64 | 88% |
| 08-2025 | 7 | 89% |
| 08-2026 | 8 | 89% |
| 08-2027 | 8 | 90% |
| 08-2028 | 8 | 90% |
| 08-2029 | 9 | 90% |
| 08-2030 | 9 | 90% |
| 08-2031 | 9 | 90% |
| 08-2032 | 9 | 90% |
| 08-2033 | 10 | 90% |
| 08-2034 | 10 | 91% |
with a 5-year average of $0 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 0% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 08-2025 | 0 |
| 08-2026 | 0 |
| 08-2027 | 0 |
| 08-2028 | 0 |
| 08-2029 | 0 |
| 08-2030 | 0 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | (3) |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 31 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | 4 | 0 | 0 | (1) | 5 |
| 2026 | 8 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 8 |
| 2027 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| 2028 | 8 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 8 |
| 2029 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 115.57 | -85.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 110.15 | -85.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 43.85 | -94.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 56.52 | -92.7% |
Is Baillie Gifford Japan Trust PLC (BGFD.L) a buy or a sell? Baillie Gifford Japan Trust PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Baillie Gifford Japan Trust PLC (BGFD.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -85.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $777.00.