What is BEVER.AS's Intrinsic value?

Bever Holding NV (BEVER.AS) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of July 16, 2025, Bever Holding NV's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $10.93 to $12.69 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $10.93 +304.8%
Earnings Power Value $12.69 +369.9%

Is Bever Holding NV (BEVER.AS) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $2.70, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Bever Holding NV's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  2. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 2.6% 3.1%
Equity market risk premium 5.1% 6.1%
Adjusted beta 0.3 0.34
Cost of equity 4.1% 5.6%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 25.0% 25.3%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.02 0.02
After-tax WACC 4.1% 5.6%

Valuation Methods

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 4.8%
  • Long-term growth rate: 4.0%
  • Fair value: $-24.73 (-1015.8% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 5.6% (Low) to 4.1% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.0% (Low) to 5.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $(8) to $30
  • Selected fair value: $10.93 (304.8% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $10M
Discount Rate (WACC) 6.4% - 4.3%
Enterprise Value $151M - $224M
Net Debt $(29)M
Equity Value $180M - $253M
Outstanding Shares 17M
Fair Value $11 - $15
Selected Fair Value $12.69

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $46M
Enterprise Value $20M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 7.70
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.02

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 60% $1.64
Earnings Power Value 40% $1.27
Weighted Average 100% $11.63

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Bever Holding NV's intrinsic value is $11.63, which is approximately 330.8% above the current market price of $2.70.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-4768% to -5852% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.02)

Given these factors, we believe Bever Holding NV is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.